July 28, 2009

Global Warming...has it happened before????

Text ColorAccording to about half the hack scientists out there man made global warming is going to wipe out civilization in the next 50 years if we don't start living like cavemen. Now I am not questioning that in the last 150 years until 1998, the planet got warmer. But the question I am presenting is has this warming happened before, why, and what did it lead to? I will try my best to avoid the technobabble that only scientists understand. The question, has global warming happened before? Archaeology and ancient historical records seem to indicate that global warming did happen from 800 to between 1200-1300A.D. For a while, I thought the Roman Catholic church which basically controlled Europe at that time had far too many S.U.V.s but archaeology doesn't bare that out. Here is a wikipedia explanation of this time of Global Warming. I am using wiki because the more scientific sites are generally loaded with technobabble:

The Medieval Warm Period was a time of warm weather around AD 800-1300 during the European Medieval period. Initial research on the MWP and the followingLittle Ice Age (LIA) was largely done in Europe, where the phenomenon was most obvious and clearly documented. It was initially believed that the temperature changes were global.[2] However, this view has been questioned; the 2001 IPCC report summarises this research, saying "…current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of 'Little Ice Age' and 'Medieval Warm Period' appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries".[3] Global temperature records taken from ice cores, tree rings, and lake deposits, have shown that, taken globally, the Earth may have been slightly cooler (by 0.03 degrees Celsius) during the 'Medieval Warm Period' than in the early- and mid-20th century.[4] Crowley and Lowery (2000) [5] note that "there is insufficient documentation as to its existence in the Southern hemisphere."

Palaeoclimatologists developing region-specific climate reconstructions of past centuries conventionally label their coldest interval as "LIA" and their warmest interval as the "MWP".[4][6] Others follow the convention and when a significant climate event is found in the "LIA" or "MWP" time frames, associate their events to the period. Some "MWP" events are thus wet events or cold events rather than strictly warm events, particularly in central Antarctica where climate patterns opposite to the North Atlantic area have been noticed.

[edit]By world region

[edit]North Atlantic

The last written records of theNorse Greenlanders are from a 1408 marriage in the church ofHvalsey — today the best-preserved of the Norse ruins.

A radiocarbon-dated box core in the Sargasso Sea shows that the sea surface temperature was approximately 1 °C (1.8 °F) cooler than today approximately 400 years ago (the Little Ice Age) and 1700 years ago, and approximately 1 °C warmer than today 1000 years ago (the Medieval Warm Period).[7]

During the MWP wine grapes were grown in Europe as far north as southern Britain.[8][9][10][11] For comparison: today vine is grown in northern Britain, and as far north as Gotland, a Swedish island in the Baltic Sea[12].

[edit]North America

The Vikings took advantage of ice-free seas to colonize Greenland and other outlying lands of the far north.[13] Around 1000AD the climate was sufficiently warm for the north of Newfoundland to support a Viking colony and lead to the descriptor "Vinland". The MWP was followed by the Little Ice Age, a period of cooling that lasted until the 19th century, and the Viking settlements eventually died out. In the Chesapeake Bay, researchers found large temperature excursions during the Medieval Warm Period (about 800–1300) and the Little Ice Age (about 1400–1850), possibly related to changes in the strength of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.[14] Sediments in Piermont Marsh of the lower Hudson Valley show a dry Medieval Warm period from AD 800–1300.[15]

Prolonged droughts affected many parts of the western United States and especially eastern California and the western Great Basin.[4][16] Alaska experienced three time intervals of comparable warmth: A.D. 1–300, 850–1200, and post-1800.[17] Knowledge of the North American Medieval Warm Period has been useful in dating occupancy periods of certain Native American habitation sites, especially in arid parts of the western U.S.[18] Review of more recent archaeological research shows that as the search for signs of unusual cultural changes during the MCA has broadened, some of these early patterns (e.g. violence and health problems) have been found to be more complicated and regionally varied than previously thought while others (e.g., settlement disruption, deterioration of long distance trade, and population movements) have been further corroborated.[19]


So we have evidence that Global warming is not a new phenomenon and it was not caused by medieval monks driving Chevy Suburbans. Now what did this warming event lead to, what happened when the Previous Warming ended as our current warming period has ended 11 years ago. Could this tell us what the future holds? That will be answered in the following post.


Comments (8)

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Not much happening politically today so I am giving a nameless troll more proof against man made global warming that he can't delete!!!!
We are heading into a period that could produce the next little ice age based on solar activity records. Solar Cycle 23 refuses to die, and the lack of sunspots are cooling things off. If anything is going to happen, it's going to be that we aren't prepared for the cooling based on the global warming nonsense and people will starve because of it.
3 replies · active 818 weeks ago
It goes far beyond just Solar Cycles. There are two key atmospheric indicators that are WAY off. The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and the SOI (Southern Oscillation index). We are in an "el nino" cycle in the Pacific so the SOI should be between 0 and -5. It is positive (+) 12. The NAO should be positive given all the other climatic signs and yet it is very strongly negative which is why it has been so cool in New England over the last 2 months. The NAO is a bit closet to normal now, but is expected to shift back in Negative territory in the longer term. These two indicators along with another known as the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) are he big 3 as to determining long term climate forecasting. the MJO is normal as it doesn't really have abnormal pattern shifts but the NAO and SOI are all wrong. If this continues into next winter it will be the worst winter since weather data has been recorded for the Eastern US, and the SW drought will worsen. Also a negative NAO plus a positive SOI sends tropical activity towards Florida and the Gulf during the summer months. That happened in 2004 and 2005 but the signals weren't this skewed. I tend to think that if this continues it may squash Hurricane activity altogether.

You are correct about the sunspots. the Maunder minimum (the period when sunspots die out) has lasted way too long. It was due to end in 07, and it is 2 years late and there is not a sign of any sunspot activity. I believe that while solar energy is key to warming the earth, they type of energy may play a role too and sunspots give a unique type of energy that now we are not getting. The nightmare scenario is if this is a precursor to a CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) which would totally destroy all electronics on earth. I have a crazy theory that the mayans figured out how to predict CMEs and the Mayan Calendar that ends in 2012 is predicting a major CME in 2012 that would kill all electronics and totally disrupt global weather.
Clay, if you want to see the sources I use to get my data from, I will be happy to share them for you to study if you don't already have access to such data. All the people that understand this that can fight off the charlatans trying to sell global warming, the better.
Clay I did another post explaining why It is so cold in Chicago and the New England and why next winter could be really bad.
Hi Joel: You sure know your history. This is great proof that global warming is a crock of crap. This has been the coolest summer (except for today and yesterday) in Chicago in 70 years or so! There is NO global warming...just a made up bunch of junk to get al bore a nobel prize, and the fearmongers to send us all backwards 1000 years. Keep speaking the truth, Joel...and keep nameless trolls nameless...they don't deserve the publicity ;-)
1 reply · active 818 weeks ago
I was just about to comment on that. That is from my reply to Clay the NAO at work. The NAO is a large scale high pressure system that moves between Greenland and Iceland. When it moves to Iceland, England is cool and wet typically. When it backs up toward Greenland, cool air is driven south along with the Jet stream into America from Canada. When it is farther west near greenland it is considered "negative", when it moves eastward, it is considered positive. As you and our friends in New England can tell, the NAO has been way negative this spring and summer. That means that subarctic ice is not melting at it's usual rate and the ground will already be cold going into next winter. Unless a drastic change happens in the next few months, next winter will make last winter seem pleasant and that was not the case for you in CHI town.
Actually there was global warming from the late 1970's to 1998. However they were not amn made and not caused by greenhouse gasses. Those ideas are more full of hot air than the sun itself.
Clay actually gave alot of my info for tomorrow's post about what happens after the warm period. That's okay, I want people to be educated about this at least to a basic level so when someone starts talking global warming, you can easily debate them.

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